I have statistics that can unsettle your stomach. Hold tight to your seat. While we were engaged in the tussle of who is an authentic and an inauthentic speaker in Ebonyi, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) headed by Prof Attahiru Jega announced the creation of 30,000 additional polling units across the nation as part of the plans to ensure that no Nigerian is left out in the forth coming 2015 general elections.
A breakdown of the newly created additional polling units according to geopolitical zones is as follows:
NORTH: North-West 7,906; North-East 5,291; and the North-Central 6,318
SOUTH: South-West 4,160, South-South 3,087 and South-East 1,167
If these figures are anything to go by, as against 21,615 polling units allocated to the North, the entire South has a total of 8, 412 which is less than the figure of North-West alone (7, 906) added to the FCT (1,120) totaling 9,026. The number allocated to the South-South zone (3, 087) is less than half of those allocated to the North-West zone. Then, that of the South-East (1, 167) which is less than a quarter of any of the Northern zones (North-West 7,906, North-East 5, 291 and the North-Central: 6,318). North-East despite the incursion of Boko Haram is allocated four times over the units allotted to the South-East.
Yet, Jega says there is no hidden agenda behind it and he is even threatening resignation if agitations against the creation are sustained. The creation, the unequal distribution, and the timing are suspicious and are capable of tarnishing the good reputation of Prof Attahiru Jega who now appears to be acting an ethnic script. This creation if allowed would not only sustain permanent dominance of North on election matters but would help rig the elections at the source and deliver the juiciest throne to North in 2015 and beyond. It will not be surprising that the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) has not even seen anything wrong in the INEC’s offensive proposal as long as it will enable the merger party to win in the north which is their stronghold. The act is condemnable as it does not follow the logic of true federal character commission nor the spirit of just concluded National Conference. The conspiracy is too shouting and no amount of argument can detract the evil intention of its hatchers. It is a clear political game skewed against the South.
Jega’s kangaroo creation is not entirely new. The north has bad reputation of manipulating national data to their favour. A review of population census in Nigeria will buttress this fact. In the 1921 National Population Census, the Igbo had the largest population, out of 10,718,920 million released, they had 3,930,509. Surprisingly, they had gone down to 3,184,585 million in a figure released in 1931 census. And by 1963, the Igbo polled combined figure of 12, 399,462 million out of 55,570,052 million to become the third in the nation’s demographical distribution. This represented 22 percent of the total population. At the top was the North with 29,808,659 representing 53 percent and the West 10,265,846 making 18 percent. Lagos alone had 665,246, which is 1.2 percent.
In 1991, the North had a figure of 47,369,237 out of a total of 88,992,166 which was about 53.40 per cent. The 2006 census pegged the country’s population at 140,003,542. The breakdown gave the North a total of 75,025,166 representing 53.59 percent. Further breakdown placed Kano in the lead with 9,383,582 followed by Lagos with 9,013,534.
The question, as former Governor Tinubu put it after the release was: “If NPC accepts 4.9 million forms, that is households in Lagos, are they arguing that average residents on each form recorded against the household is less than three?”
Recall that the 1991 head count gave Lagos 5,725,116 as against Kano’s 5,810,470, meaning that Kano State topped Lagos with 100, 912 people. But then, there are reasons to doubt Kano’s superiority after 15 years. Among other variables employed by the analysts to support their argument was that Kano has remained unaffected after another state, Jigawa has been carved out of it. Jigawa in the 2006 count was said to have polled 4,348,649 million despite the projected figure for Kano.
Assuming the population figure of the 1991 census are correct, it would be difficult to see how the population of both Lagos and Kano States could grow at the same rate. This is because new migrants arrive Lagos almost on a daily basis while a lot of people have left Kano State particularly after the collapse of commerce and industry in Kano and also because of the attitude of Kano’s people towards visitors in recent times.
It was surprising that Lagos, where the Director General of NPC Sama’ila Makama, accepted in 2006 as one of the fastest growing mega cities in the world should be placed below Kano. And more surprising is that before NPC figures were released, World Bank and UN estimated the population of Lagos to be about 15 million and projected that the State would be a home to about 24 million people by 2015. The only plausible conclusion was that 2006 figure was a bedroom projection made from 1991 based on about 2.83 percent growth rate by NPC in total disregard to migration issue and forgetfulness that Jigawa had been carved out.
There are other instances to rubbish the 2006 count under Makama. In 1991, Kaduna had 3.9 million representing 2.17 percent of National figure, while Osun which is a city to march with Kaduna, moved from 2.1 million to 3.4 million in 2006.
Recall also that population is a major factor in sharing formula of Federation account. The effect of 1991 census in the structural injustice nicknamed ‘1999 Constitution’ is obvious. It plays major role in the number of representatives each State is allowed to elect in the lower house of National Assembly. That is why Lagos and Kano have 24 federal constituencies each. Today, the North has 182 seats as against 176 from South, while FCT has 2 making it 360. This clearly reflects Section 49 of the constitution which stipulates that the House of Representatives should be composed of 360 members and no constituency is allowed to fall within more than one state. This constitutional requirement is in respect to figures allotted to different states in 1991.
Other facts abound. Not long ago, the National Conference recommended the creation of additional 18 states as part of the measures to resolve the imbalance in geo-political zones. In the proposed states, all the South-Eastern states of Abia, Anambra, Enugu and Imo had at least one and a half states but Ebonyi had only a community carved out to join others in the proposed Etiti State. The tragedy is that Ebonyi communities have even written a protest letter begging to be excluded from the yet to be created state because of selfish desire of disgruntled politicians.
This is a reality we should wake up to instead of involving in baseless state politics. The greatest act of injustice is the distortions of elements that enable people determine their rights in a given system. In such distortions, the alleged majority becomes the foundation of legality and legitimacy. When the illegitimate is legitimized, an unjust system of distributive injustice is set up.
The time for the Igbo to rise is now. Unfortunately, our men at Abuja are sleeping. If we allow INEC’s proposal to stand, we should as well be prepared to welcome a Boko Haram president soonest. We must rise and say Tufiakwa to this offensive proposal.
