05.10.2014
It is not the euphoria of Nigeria at 54 nor Ebonyi at 18 that should bother us this week. After all there is nothing so symbolic about the numbers 54 and 18. Neither do we expect promises we have not heard in the past at such celebrations. The template of independence or creation anniversary messages does not change. Script writers only make some changes to reflect the date and venue of the celebration. What may be unique about the year’s celebration is that it promises to be the last for some as leaders of their states and perhaps for President Jonathan as the leader of the most populous nation in Africa.
Be sure to hear such clauses as ‘efforts are being made’, ‘arrangement has been concluded’, ‘plans have reached advanced stage’, and ‘plans are underway’. We do not need such deception again. We have novelties in the political angle that will give us joy to balance affliction for the years we have known sorrows.
With the guidelines of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) indicating that parties’ primaries must be conducted between October 2 and December 11, 2014 while December 18 through 25th are the final days for the submission of presidential and National Assembly nomination forms to INEC, politics has entered gear two.
Ahead of December 6, 2014, PDP presidential primary, a gale of endorsement is pouring in favour of President Jonathan’s candidacy. First it was Chief Tony Aneni-headed PDP Board of Trustees who adopted Mr. President as the sole candidate for the 2015 polls.
The next endorsement came on Wednesday September 14, 2014, when governors elected on the platform of the PDP rose from their meeting in Abuja to adopt President Jonathan as their sole candidates for the 2015 polls. The announcement was made by the Chairman of the PDP Governors’ Forum who urged other PDP faithful nationwide to support the decision to fly Jonathan as the only presidential aspirant and candidate of the party.
The communiqué read to the journalists by Chief Akpabio stated in part: “The forum hereby endorses Dr Gooluck Ebele Jonathan (GCFR), president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria for a second term in office and resolve to support his re-election come 2015. The forum urged all PDP faithful to support this gesture which should enable the president to be the sole Presidential candidate of PDP come 2015.”
As if that is not enough, the PDP National Working Committee (NWC) through the statement of position made by the National Secretary of the party, Prof Wale Oladipo to a group seeking a fresh mandate for the president, ‘House-to-House Campaign Organisation Campaign for Democracy’ has declared that priority will be given to the ambition of President Jonathan in the race. He insisted that Jonathan represents the stability of this nation.
These endorsements are said to be based on the ‘right of first refusal’ which is a political strategy initiated by the American Democratic Party in the 70s to forestall splitting among members during the primaries. The intention was to ensure that Democrats contested elections as one united family. Those pushing for Jonathan’s adoption as the sole candidate of PDP are insisting that Nigeria is modeled on the example of America democracy where a serving president enjoys ‘the right of first refusal.’ According to them, the offer will help President Jonathan solidify the cohesion and reduce unnecessary distractions from inside to enable him concentrate at the main polls.
When generally endorsed and accepted by the party faithful, it will allow the serving president and governors the opportunity to become the candidates of their party during elections without undergoing the rigours of primaries. This approach will give PDP more time to concentrate on strategies to win the major election while other parties are struggling for primaries with rancor it will finally generate.
The offer is however subject to Jonathan acceptance to contest for the office of the president in the 2015 general elections. Jonathan has described his endorsement by the party’s major organs as giving him the ‘right of first refusal’ to the ticket. He said that he now has right to accept or refuse the PDP’s ticket before it can be declared open for contest. If accepted as we are sure he will, his re-election bid will be a walk-over.
That is why many reactions have thrilled the new arrangement. The oppositions clearly understand what it means and some are plotting every graph possible to cement unity in their opposition parties. Others are regretting their decision to dump PDP. For the first time, Gov. Rotimi Amechi of Rivers State said he was deceived by Babangida Aliyu into defecting to APC and that he was surprise when Aliyu became the first to declare that there is no vacancy in Aso Rock come 2015. With such revelation from Amechi who is an indisputable strongman of the opposition, it appears that political horizon is becoming clear.
When the Five governors elected under the platform of PDP defected to All Progressives Congress (APC), the idea was to frustrate President Jonathan as it was clear the party structure was in his favour and secondly to realize their individual agenda in the APC. Gov Murtala Nyako so took the defection personal that it later swept him out of office, delivering the state back to his enemy, Jonathan. The crisis which later erupted in the opposition following the maiden convention has orchestrated counter defections which is weakening the opposition. Worst, the opposition’s presidential primaries pitching the heavyweights may further land the party into deeper crisis.
The move by the PDP clearly confirmed already known fact that elections in Nigeria end at the primaries. Once the party flag-bearers are known and the reigning party noted, we can add one or two things up to make a right judgment.
Some people are naturally so ‘lucky’ in life. Goodluck is one of them. Everything that moves against him succeeds in making him popular. He had almost lost the sympathy of all Nigerians not until it was clear that Boko Haram is being used against him because he is a Christian and southerner. From that moment people started making u-turn. With the escalating insurgency, average Christian is ready to dash him his or her votes.
When Yar’Adua took ill, cabals moved to stop his ascension to the juicy throne, but ‘doctrine of necessity’ came to his rescue. And with the memory of the cabals’ political maneuvering many Nigerians saw in him the progressive needed to move Nigeria forward. That was how he came to be elected in 2011 polls.
And now, we are talking about ‘right of first refusal’. There are things attractive in the strategy the PDP is adopting. Over the years, citizens who nurse ambition are allowed to waste their resources campaign for offices that are not vacant. At the end of the day, the party will live pre-anointed candidates.
I saw in the new proposal a policy to discourage waste of lives and property which party primaries have occasioned in the past. Once it is clear that such positions are not vacant, nobody goes to dissipate his energy for positions that are non-available. Though it has been an unwritten law that incumbent always have the way, but the temptation to try one’s luck has already bred hatred and fueled violence especially among the candidates’ supporters.
What the present scenario appears to show is that Jonathan may be lucky again to walk through the mud of current challenges to be our president beyond 2015. One cannot help asking ‘who is this man Jonathan.
Citizens’ Advocate: 5th October, 2014.
