The prevailing mindset among Nigerians prior to March 28, 2015, general election was that the incumbent president would always win elections. It was on such presumption that Nigerians rose in their numbers in 2006 to reject the move by the then President Olusegun Obasanjo to run for the third term. Obasanjo was doctoring the constitution to pave way for his ambition but met with stiff opposition when his plot was foiled by prominent Nigerians led by his vice, Atiku Abubakar. The idea to nip the issue in the bud was because, had OBJ scaled through the constitution, he would have definitely won the third term.
When Jonathan declared to run for the second term, he was inspired by that old belief. It never happened before nor were there strong proofs that it was in the offing at least in the minds of the occupants of Aso Rock who have since lost contact with the constituents whom they ought to care for. The reality was so hard for the likes of Godson Orubebe to swallow when the trickling results started favouring President Jonathan’s rival, the candidate of the All Progressive Congress, Gen Muhammadu Buhari.
Since that historic failure, political pundits have been shaking heads looking for aggregate reasons which killed President Goodluck Jonathan’s ambition to book another four-year reservation at the Aso Rock villa. While opinions differ, the failure can be accounted for by the following cumulative factors.
The major factor was the united opposition. For every force, there must be a counter force. A force prevails when a counter force is weak and fragmented. That was the logic the oppositions understood and for the first time in the history of the country, came together to form a coalition under the aegis of the All Progressives Congress, APC. The coming together of oppositions was a thunder blow for the PDP. The merger did not stop there, it went on to harvest all aggrieved members of the ruling party and divided Jonathan’s household. The united opposition moved like wildfire and crumbled the supremacy of the PDP.
In the opposition are not ordinary Nigerians but men who had done the dirty jobs for the PDP for the last sixteen years. They are men which made the PDP to acquire the name, an election-winning machine. The men in opposition were the reason why till tomorrow the party couldn’t win election without rigging. The opposition knew all the tricks of the PDP and given that Jonathan was a political neophyte, the opposition created more problems for the PDP and constantly kept its doors open to all aggrieved PDP members to search for better political destiny. When men like former president Obasanjo saw that the wild fire was out for maximum damage, he shred his membership card of the PDP thereby escaping the shame that eventually fell on them.
The opposition didn’t stop there; they kept close eyes on the PDP by leaving some of its members like Sule Lamido and Babangida Aliyu. They were clandestinely working for the APC, leaking out classified party plans to the opposition even as President Jonathan reposed his confidence in them, relaxing that all was well with his leaking roof.
The formation of mega party also meant that the PDP had lost control of some strategic states it needed to control. Such states as Kano and Lagos are in the least needed to be politically neutral; but that was not the case, as those states massively moved to adopt the opposition candidate, Buhari.
Despite the campaign of calumny that followed the postponement of election, the PDP could not register acceptance. The desperation and dirty campaign gave more credit to the APC except in Igboland.
The second factor was INEC’s conspiracy. With a united opposition, the Independent National Electoral Commission saw the signs of change.
When the PDP moved to stop Jega, it was already late. The matter had been brought to public awareness and sacking Jega would reveal the rigging plan of the party. The best the party could do was to accuse the INEC boss, Prof. Attahiru Jega of holding a secret meeting with the leaders of the APC in Dubai. Fact or fiction, Prof. Attahiru Jega denied it. Yet, the accusation leveled by the PDP further soured its relationship with Prof. Jega and strengthened Jega’s sympathy for the opposition. In the face of this suspicion, Jega had to resort to a system that would make rigging hard for the PDP. He had also seen the massive support the APC was receiving and with Jega’s brother as its Presidential flagbearer, Jega’s plan was at best to protect Buhari’s votes and where opportunity permits to rig election in his favour.
That was how Jega brought the issue of card readers. Jonathan’s boys kicked against it but it was late too; Jega had made up his mind. With new biometric voters’ cards, the introduction of card readers did a lot of damages to the PDP. It limited their rigging strength, hence the rejoicing in the PDP’s circle whenever the machines would fail test.
Not to be neglected is the insurgency. For some years now, the sovereignty of the country has been compromised by the activities of the insurgents, Boko Haram. The election took place against the background of Islamist insurgents in the north-east still controlling parts of the country which they have declared an Islamic caliphate.
The sect has killed over 20,000 people, kidnapped children and women and forced some three million others out of their homes. While the problem predates President Jonathan, he has not escaped criticism for not getting grips on it. The poll was delayed for six weeks to give time for the security situation to improve, but even though most areas controlled by Boko Haram were recaptured, it seems to have come too late for many people. People have been wondering why Jonathan started the war too late. The opposition has never failed to exploit Jonathan’s cluelessness as regard the war against the insurgents to the point that people accused the APC of sponsoring the sect.
The fourth factor borders on economy. Nigeria is Africa’s biggest oil producer and its largest economy, but many fail to feel the benefits with nearly half the population living below the poverty line. National income is due to grow by more than 5% this year and next year, but people do not seem to be in the mood to thank Mr Jonathan for this. This is because Nigerians don’t come to terms with the analysis that our economy is doing well; they don’t see the change reflect on their food menus. The failure of the economic growth to reflect on people’s well-being is evidence of wild spread corruption which Jonathan has failed to tackle.
Jonathan’s government has the reputation of being too slow to slap on the chain of corruption in the country. Jonathan has even boasted that his government has never imprisoned any Nigerian for corruption. The general feeling is that Jonathan’s unwillingness and inability to stamp out corruption will one day take the country to a standstill.
The above taken together prompted the opposition to develop the slogan, “Change” which resonated in the minds of Nigerians who are tired of being asked to make sacrifices for the past sixteen years that the PDP has held us to ransom. The chant of “change” caught public mood except those who closed their minds to the truth. The change was inevitable because Jonathan’s government is oozing out fatigue. Greedy politicians are being rotated in political appointments. People are not only tired of the PDP’s recklessness and party dictatorship but have lost hope in Jonathan’s boys who are not even popular in their family circles.
This was a big plus to Buhari who has three times attempted to unseat the PDP and three times ended up in the Supreme Court seeking justice. To many, it was time to give him a chance. Perhaps, if the opposition had given the ticket to a different candidate, Jonathan might have won because beside Buhari, most members of the APC are no better off.
With the PDP set to watch governance from the bench, people cannot help believing that the change is already here. We look ahead to see how Buhari moves to mop up the mess.
